Push or fold with 10BB: Nash + ICM analysis step by step

We're talking about the classic mid-to-late tournament spot: you have 10 effective big blinds, you're acting before the BB (typically BTN or SB), and the decision is push or fold preflop. No raise; with 10BB, raises are a trap because they leave you no postflop margin. The question is: what range do I push?

At Nash chipEV equilibrium (assuming prizes are linear in chips, with no pay jumps), the optimal push range with 10BB in SB heads-up is approximately 39% of hands. This includes all pairs, all Ax, nearly all suited high Kx, and all broadways. On the BTN with two defenders, the range tightens to ~47% (not less — three players are sharing the cost). These ranges are published and are mathematically optimal against Nash defense.

The beauty of chipEV is that it assumes every chip is worth the same. But in tournaments with real pay jumps, losing those 10BB can cost you more $EV than winning them. If you're near a significant pay jump (bubble, ITM, final table), the optimal push range with 10BB tightens to between 25% and 35%, depending on how close those jumps are. Folding marginal hands like K8s or A2o becomes correct in spots where chipEV would make them a standard push.

Stacks 10/10/9/8 BB, payouts 100/60/40/0. You push AKs from SB.

- BB has to decide whether to call with a ~29% Nash chipEV range. - Your equity vs that range ≈ 53%. - $EV(push) across all branches: positive and clear. - Recommendation: PUSH.

But if you were the shorter stack (8BB) and the medium stacks had you covered, AKs is still a push but with less margin. And A2o in that same spot goes from borderline push (chipEV) to fold (ICM). If you want to see your own spots solved with this same math, try the free ICM calculator — entering your inputs and getting a result takes 30 seconds.

1) **Folding AK in position**. AK is a push from any position with 10BB except in extreme ICM spots. Folding it gives away equity. 2) **Pushing any suited connector**. 76s with 10BB is a push in pure chipEV but a fold in moderate ICM. 3) **Min-raising with 10BB**. You're telegraphing: you don't have the equity to play postflop with a stack-to-pot ratio < 1. Push or fold. 4) **Assuming the villain plays Nash**. If your table overcalls (call rate >40%), tighten your push range to extract more equity with premium hands.

Push/fold with 10BB is one of the most studied spots in modern tournament poker because it comes up literally every hand in the late stage. We're leaving you a tool to solve yours: our push/fold calculator with ICM pressure accepts your stack, the defender's stack, the payouts, and your hand, and returns the $EV for each branch. No sign-up, nothing to install.